One of Singapore’s major project is the petrochemical complex on Jurong Island. It opened in the late 1970s marked with much fanfare. It was a feather in the cap for a young Singapore as it brought together global brands and billions of investment dollars and provided thousands of jobs.

As the complex expand it swallow up land: 32 sq.km of it. It was not a problem those days thanks to the cheap sand in Indonesia and Malaysia and the relative shallow waters around a cluster of small islands, the rich coral and marine biodiversity in the area notwithstanding.

The world has changed. The ubiquitous plastic bag once a boom to shoppers is today a curse to marine life. According to a study, “The ocean is expected to contain one tonne of plastic for every three tonnes of fish by 2025, and by 2050, more plastics than fish [by weight].”

Burning oil and gas to produce electricity has resulted in increasing the acidity of the oceans and decimating the phytoplanktons which synthesizes much of oxygen in the atmosphere.

Planktons form the base of all food chains. “Environmental changes and human activities may be threatening plankton – and therefore all marine animals.”

Toxic particulates from the combustion of hydrocarbon fuels is inhaled very day killing innocent people. The zillions of tons of greenhouse gas cause global warming and sea levels to rise. Methane levels are increasing caused by the melting permafrost. “Long-dormant bacteria and viruses, trapped in ice and permafrost for centuries, are reviving as Earth’s climate warms.”

Environmentalists ringing alarm bells. Almost 200 parties gathered in Poland, for the United Nations COP24 climate change conference. They agreed to a guideline for implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, aimed at keeping global warming well below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels.

Global efforts to combat these threats will negatively impact the demand for petrochemical products. As renewables edge oil and gas out of the energy equation, upstream feedstock will tapper off.

The viability of JI is further threatened by what is going on next door, in the south east corner of Johor. One of the most successful company in Malaysia, Petronas, along with the government of Malaysia will soon enter the market with its 80 sq.km complex plus a nearby 3 sq.km Tanjung Langsat Port for liquid cargo.

Indonesia and Thailand have similar ambitions. Further away, Qatar Petroleum  is calling tenders to develop a new world-scale Petrochemicals Complex at Ras Laffan. The Saudis are joint venturing with Chinese to build Petrochemical plants in China. Singapore cannot take them head on. It would be foolish. We do not have the hinterland for such projects as they do.

This frenzy to build more petrochemical complexes reminds me of the same frenzy to build shipyards a decade ago. China in a matter of a few short years after 2000, sprung from obscurity to become the world’s biggest shipbuilder. By 2008 China became a victim of its exuberant excess as shipyard after shipyard went bust. Not only did the Chinese government not lift a finger to stop the bloodbath, it actually withdrew support for the industry.

Overland pipelines will change the dynamics of shipping making Singapore’s geographical location less strategic. A pipeline through Myanmar to China will reduce the traffic of oil through Singapore Straits. The Arctic passage connecting the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans will also diminish our geographical advantage.

Environmental and competitive pressures and potential changes in trading patterns suggest are compelling reasons for winding down our petrochemical industry. What else? Land pressure. We are so desperately short on land.

So, what do we do with those process plants and storage tanks? Float them out at sea. Can it be done? Yes.

FPSOs and FLNGs are proofs of what are possible. The largest man-made structure Shell Prelude is the latest of floating process plants in service. It costs US$10 billion all told.

If we could float out all the plants for thrice that amount it still make sense as JI is worth at least S$300 billion.

Simple platforms of 200 m x 50 m can be clustered together to form platforms of any size or shape to suit the needs of each process plant. These platforms are of concrete hull and cost less than S$1000 per sq. m. for the intended purpose. They are durable and will last a hundred years with little maintenance. They are eco-friendly as do not damage the seabed. In fact, these concrete platforms can double up as habitats for marine life.

And the storage tanks? Float them too. The Japanese have been doing that for years.!

What can we do with JI after the hydrocarbon activities are floated out? Lots. There are so much cutting-edge technologies out there looking for places like Singapore. The manufacturing of AI products can intensify land use. Instead of production just at ground level, these products can be manufactured in multi-storey buildings. The GDP contribution per hectare of land used will be multiplied several folds.

Dyson recently chose Singapore to manufacture electric cars even though they could have picked on China where the market is and where production cost is lower. Dyson have a large R&D facility here for many years and are happy with the infrastructure here. These were good enough reasons for billionaire owner James Dyson. A repurposed JI could be home to many other clean hi-tech hi-value products like Dyson.

By putting the JI industries out at sea, we not only save land we also obviate the need to keep sea lanes for the exclusive use of ships transporting cargos to and from JI. It frees up the sea space and it reduces the risk of a major oil spill or a catastrophic fire outbreak at the tank farms.

Our state coffer may not have the billions of dollars to realise such an idea. However floating assets like ships and oil rigs are easily collateralized. Private equity or debt may be tapped.

Wishing all an exciting clean and green 2019.

Lim Soon Heng

29 Dec 2018